Published 2007-10-13 by Derek Paul in Global issues | Climate change

Climate Change Policy

Notes for a talk to an informal NDP meeting 13 October 2007
Derek Paul, Prof. Emeritus, University of Toronto
Exec member, Science for Peace

Global Warming is a threat to civilization of the same magnitude a major nuclear war would be, and it has an additional characteristic that makes it even more menacing. Nuclear war can be avoided altogether by dismantling the bombs on a timescale of a few years and putting the fissile bomb materials under international control. Global warming by contrast could lead to inevitable disaster if a point is reached at which the warming takes place without the help of the human race. I shall refer to this as the point at which the Earth starts to cook itself all on its own. We haven’t reached that point but we may be very close to it.

The Earth is warmed by the Sun and by heat coming from its own interior, and it is cooled by reflecting part of the incoming sunlight back into outer space and by reradiating infrared radiation back into outer space. The human race cannot control the first two, but it has some power to control the reflected radiation and the reradiated infrared. Global warming occurs when the reflected and reradiated amounts are less than the other two amounts.

There are two effects leading to global warming:

1. Trapping of reradiated heat in the atmosphere, preventing its escape into outer space, and
2. Reduced reflection, especially at the poles, when the summer sunlight finds less ice to reflect off.

Greenhouse gases (ghgs), mainly carbon dioxide, are what traps the heat in the atmosphere, and the carbon dioxide can be and are reabsorbed in the oceans and by forests; but it can also be emitted by forests, as in forest fires, and there are other emissions possible from forests. CO₂ can also be re-emitted from the ocean, and will be re-emitted if the ocean warms sufficiently. Another greenhouse gas, methane, is emitted from swamps, from animals, especially farm animals and from unfrozen tundra. The current global warming is already melting permafrost and causing methane emissions in the far north.

Any serious global warming policy must lead rapidly to greatly reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and increased CO₂ sequestration. The preservation of what remains of the tropical rainforests is vitally important in this context, likely the single most important factor. Also the capture of methane is important. The preparation of such a policy needs careful analysis, notwithstanding its urgency, because it could fail if it impoverishes people and leads to major social resistance. Pragmatism will surely have to come before any particular ideology in this vital matter.

Reducing CO₂ emissions

The human race needs to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 80 percent in the short-medium term and by at least 90 percent below present levels in the long term. The general recipe for reducing emissions will have to extend to all sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, producer consumption, electrical supply, other CO2, methane, all other greenhouse gases such as PFCs and HFCs.

Much progress has been made for many years in reducing the energy requirements of industry for any given process and amount of product produced, and these improvements are proceeding. However, there is still much waste involved in small and large businesses, and this is something society must look at.

Improvements in the building code for Ontario have recently been made, but there is little incentive as yet to retrofit buildings so as to bring them up to higher standards of insulation, etc.

In the transportation sector, nothing of any value has so far been achieved. Extravagant vehicles abound, and automobile corporations are free to advertise qualities that have become attractive to many buyers, but are disastrous for the atmosphere. What is needed in the short-to-medium term (10-15 years) for cars is:

1. half as many km driven and
2. one third of the present average fuel consumption per 100 km

The second of these ambitious short-term goals can be realised by the development of optimized hybrid vehicles —none of the present hybrid models is optimized — and the promotion of such vehicles, preferably through cooperation with automobile corporations, to lead ultimately to the exclusion of other types (except where they too conform to the desired energy-efficiency characteristics). The first targets can be met through incentives to share cars for the purpose of commuting, and eventually for other purposes as well. The most effective win-win strategy for reducing vehicle use — and this is a proven strategy — is through vehicle taxation and insurance proportional to distance traveled. Curiously, this strategy does not tax fuel directly. It has several fringe benefits, including decongesting busy roads.

Regarding the development of optimized hybrids or other equally efficient vehicles, I propose that an agreement be obtained among automobile manufacturers whereby the best technology would be shared among them, with appropriate compensation to the patent holders.

Taxis and buses that are not optimized hybrids should be phased out as soon as practicable. Taxis are driven huge mileages per annum and, although hybrids cost more, available models would yield huge savings in fuel for taxi companies, offsetting the price difference in a short time. The same applies to delivery vans in cities.

Trucking

Trucks represent a greater problem, since their numbers on the roads cannot be reduced rapidly, and deliveries of goods, ultimately, are made by truck. However, a change to hybrids, with strict speed limits, say 80 km/hr, and the reversal of the present trend to high-power engines could amount huge savings in fuel, overall more than a factor of two.

In the longer term, most long-distance trucking will have to be replaced by rail transport, which means redeveloping the railways completely. The preparation for the later years of this century will thus have to be preceded by a complete rethinking of railways and their future role, possibly to include redesign from scratch. In jurisdictions where the rights of way of the railroads were sold, this could be very problematic.

Also, for the medium and long term, local production should be encouraged, to reduce the present huge distances that so many goods must travel nowadays. In essence this will require the reversal of the industrial trend to move production to distant lands. The economic justification for such moves has always neglected the high environmental costs of trucking and other transport. Good policy will tend to reverse the current trend.

Air travel

Air travel, and the determination of airlines and the tourist industry to increase the volume of air travel will prove to be a huge headache for policymakers. First, the emissions from jet airlines represent a significant fraction of the world’s total, and second, we don’t yet know whether the ice particles formed in the stratosphere from jet exhausts are reducing ocean evaporation. In the interim, air travel should be discouraged when an alternative is possible. For example, teleconferencing could often replace physical attendance at conferences. David Suzuki is already beginning that process to reduce his own traveling by air. Regarding tourism, a trend to fewer trips, but longer stays abroad would reduce the annual passenger-miles traveled.

Electrical generation

The most important features of electrical energy usage and production must be the following:

1. conservation;
2. exploiting renewable sources, especially where fossil-fuel burning is to be replaced.

I have written elsewhere about nuclear energy, and will omit discussion here but will simply state that nuclear is to be avoided as far as possible, but can be justified in special circumstances. One special circumstance would be the rapid development of China. Here coal-burning plants are being constructed at a terrifying rate. What is terrifying is that these alone, if the trend continues, could overwhelm all efforts at putting caps on greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere. It takes a good deal of time to build a nuclear reactor, but, if some model or other could be built in various places in China as soon as possible, to enable the closing of some coal plants, then it would be worth giving the reactors to that country in order to save the world from being cooked. This proposal urgently requires study.

Sequestration of carbon dioxide

This last topic is as important as reducing emissions, though there is likely less that can be done.

The most important single policy on sequestering carbon is to hang on the tropical rainforests, which are (among forests) the major absorbers of CO₂. Sadly, the huge Amazon forests and the extensive forests of Indonesia are being cut and burned as fast as the local inhabitants can do it for plantations, agriculture or cattle grazing. Any sound national policy must include international efforts, at whatever cost, to halt the destruction of the tropical forests. I personally believe the world will cook itself if these forests are let go, though this cannot be proved at present. The mechanisms for achieving a halt to the destruction of these forests will involve poverty elimination in the districts where the burning and cutting is taking place, the provision of decent jobs, and a significant improvement in the corrupt administration of these districts.

Sequestration can also be increased by afforestation, and it should be policy to encourage and, where necessary, finance sound afforestation projects the world over.

Sequestration can also be achieved in industry by deep disposal of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s crust, though this is expensive. Possibly much more economical, though requiring considerable land area (or roof area), is the conversion of CO₂ into algae, through the action of light. A good deal of experimentation has been done in this field, and it should be policy to bring some such plant on line, for example, in combination with coal burning or cement making. Among the types of algae that can be produced two are particularly useful: one to produce animal feed, the other, liquid fuel. This is a major area for research and development where good policy would provide incentives.

A reason why reductions of emissions in the transport sector need immediate attention is that sequestration is unlikely ever to be widely applied in that sector.

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